preserving the quality of life in Olney, Maryland

Forecasting Flaws Discussed with Mike Knapp

On April 1 the Olney Coalition (OC) met with Councilmember Mike Knapp to discuss the staff draft of the Olney master plan. The objective of this meeting was to brief Councilmember Knapp about the consequences of flawed forecast data in the Olney master plan staff draft and to enlist his support to bring future development in line with the capacity of area roads, schools and emergency services. The discussion focused on the following issues.

1. How many households and how many people will Olney have if the staff draft recommendations are fully built out?

Park and Planning estimates build out will be 14,800 households and 39,000 people. The Olney Coalition believes this estimate is incorrect for two reasons. According to 2003 census data, there are already more than 39,000 people living in Olney. The staff draft estimates that the population of Olney will not reach this level until 2010. Further, we believe planning staff estimates are understated because they are based on an average household size of 2.6 when Olney’s average household size has been 3.2 for more than a decade. Adjusting the forecasts for Olney’s larger average household size results in 15,181 households and 48,867 people at full build out.

If recent trends continue, build out will occur in less time than the master plan indicates. Given that Olney is under a development moratorium due to inadequate infrastructure, it is hard to imagine how the existing infrastructure will be able to handle the increased demands of 10,000 more people without significant deterioration in service levels. Yet, planned projects and funding for infrastructure improvements are inadequate to “catch-up” from the last 10-year spurt of growth and to prepare for the surge that is expected when the moratorium is lifted in July 2004.

2. Has Olney contributed its fair share to countywide programs?

According to a 2002 Community Planning Studio Report, Olney has received 34.3 % of all the TDR’s that have been used in Montgomery County. TDR’s represent almost 17% of Olney’s housing units. The TDR program, created to protect the agricultural preserve, permits landowners in TDR sending areas to sell development rights to TDR receiving areas. This means sending areas receive a subsidy for not building and receiving areas get more density. If TDR transfers occur within the same planning area and adequate infrastructure improvements are funded at the same time there is no problem. This is not what happened in Olney.

When the TDR program was introduced to Olney, it was limited to the Olney Planning area, so that density was not being added to Olney overall, it was just being rearranged (i.e., development rights were to be transferred from Northern Olney to Southern Olney). When the TDR program was opened up to be a countywide program, the receiving areas in Olney could now receive development from anywhere in the agriculture reserve. This resulted in density being shifted to Olney from places outside the Olney planning area. Other master plans under review at the time successfully resisted the introduction of receiving areas within their planning areas. As a result, Olney bore a disproportionate burden of added density but investments in infrastructure did not keep pace with this density. The resulting social inequity was a major finding of the University of MD Community Planning Studio’s Report on the TDR program.

Olney has also contributed a significant number of MPDU’s to the County’s affordable housing program. Olney has the fourth largest percentage of MPDU’s in the County. Only Germantown, Clarksburg and Travilah have more. Olney has more market rate housing that falls within the affordable range than most communities. Finally, of all the communities in the residential wedge, Olney has the highest average density at .75 dwelling units per acre. Upper Rock Creek has the lowest density at .3 dwelling units per acre.

3. How has Olney’s recent growth affected schools?

The 1980 plan said “Preliminary analysis of statistics and trends suggests the possibility that no new schools may be needed in Olney over the next 20 years.” In fact, since 1980 we have built three new schools (Blake HS, Rosa Parks MS, Brooke Grove ES) and three major additions (Olney ES in 1990, Sherwood HS in 1991.) Two more additions (Sherwood HS and Sherwood ES) have been proposed to accommodate larger than forecasted student enrollments.

4. What does the Olney Coalition want Councilmember Knapp to do?

In order to bring future growth in line with infrastructure capacity, The Olney Coalition asked Councilmember Knapp to:

1. Support the Planning Board recommendation to limit County growth to 1% per year rather than the 2% per year proposed in the Strategic Economic Development Plan.
    
2. Reduce school adequacy tests (make them more stringent so that capacity is added sooner when actual enrollments exceed forecasts)
    
3. Reduce the Average Congestion Index (ACI) target for area roads
    
4. Build the Police Substation before approving any new permits for Olney
    
5. Extend the Upper Rock Creek Special Protection Area (SPA) to the portion of the Upper Rock Creek watershed that lies within the Olney master plan boundary
    
6. Support the Olney Coalition request to suspend disposition of the 32-acre school site until the master plan is finished.

Councilmember Knapp agreed in principle with items 4 and 6. He indicated he would keep the other requests in mind as the Olney master plan proceeds through the review and approval process.